The rain, and who it reached · The road to COP31

The rise of about 40% is seen in all observational datasets. La Niña also made such rain about 22% more intense; WWA puts its effect at about half that of global warming.

In Mozambique alone, more than 75,000 people across six provinces were affected, over 70,000 homes were destroyed, and over 105,000 hectares of farmland and 34,000 livestock were lost, by WWA's count at publication.

Exposure is who and what is in harm's way; vulnerability is how easily they are hurt.

WWA rates a 10-day rain like this, in today's climate, as about a 1-in-50-year event: about a 2% chance in any year.

Flood policies exist across the region but are inconsistently implemented, WWA says, and floods damage health facilities and cut off access to clinics.

Sources

• S-50 · World Weather Attribution, La Niña, climate change, high exposure and vulnerability combined led to devastating floods in parts of southern Africa, 29 January 2026
• S-51 · World Weather Attribution, same study (rainfall trend, La Niña, return period)
• S-52 · World Weather Attribution, same study (deaths and impacts)
• S-53 · World Weather Attribution, same study (exposure and vulnerability)
• S-63 · COP31 Australia-Pacific partnership

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